The Problem Goes Deeper Than You Think

It isn't the dollar amount. It's the formula.

Population in the U.S. is heavily skewed to metros

Federal funding decisions that use data in fat-tailed distributions* to allocate and award resources unintentionally cause unpredictable systematic failures.

*A fat-tailed distribution means rare events carry outsized consequences. When extremes do happen, their impact is far bigger than what a normal “bell curve” would predict.

Funding Challenge & Significance

Federal funding decisions assume a normal population distribution. Small places live in a fat-tailed one*.

$2,800,000,000,000
Federal funding made with extreme uneven distribution
as primary decision criteria causes systematic failures

The Paradox of Being Both "Rural" and "Not Rural"

The causes of primary criteria for funding based off fat-tailed distributions: unintended, unpredictable, catasrophic consequences occur.

Cape Girardeau, MO

Classified as RURAL

USDA Business & Industry Loan
≤ 50,000 population, outside urbanized area
DOT Rural Surface Transportation
Outside UZAs with population ≥ 200,000
EDA Build to Scale
outside Urbanized Areas (≥ 50,000 population)

Classified as URBAN

USDA Community Facilities Loan
≤ 20,000 residents
EDA Public Works
< 15,000 population
HUD Rural Housing
< 2,500 population
HUD Rural Housing
< 2,500 population
HRSA
- Non-metropolitan counties
- Outlying metro counties, no urban area > 50,000
- Census tracts with RUCA codes 4-10 in metropo counties
- Census tracts of at least 400 square miles in area with population density of 35 or fewer people per square mile with RUCA codes 2-3 in metro counties
- Census tracts with RRS 5 and RUCA codes 2-3 at least 20 square miles in area in metro counties
3
Programs Eligible
5
Programs Excluded
8
Agencies Consulted
13
Hours to Research

There's Plenty of Research but Few Solutions.

Most studies look from the outside in, but success is built from the inside out.

Gap: Systematic Framework

Current research on rural entrepreneurial ecosystems emphasizes the importance of local assets and social capital but lacks systematic frameworks for matching communities to appropriate development strategies.

Gap: Comprehensive Solutions

Federal resource allocation studies consistently identify bureaucratic fragmentation and population-based criteria as barriers to effective rural development, yet few propose comprehensive solutions.

Gap: Scalable Integration

Place-based development literature demonstrates the effectiveness of asset-driven approaches but has not been integrated with federal program structures or scaled beyond individual case studies.

Rural Entrepreneurial Ecosystems: A Systems Approach to Measuring Impact

Authors: [To be added]

Abstract: This study examines the complex relationships within rural entrepreneurial ecosystems and proposes a comprehensive framework for measuring their impact on local economic development...

Federal Resource Allocation in Non-Metropolitan Areas: Distribution Patterns and Effectiveness

Authors: [To be added]

Abstract: An analysis of federal funding distribution patterns reveals significant disparities in resource allocation to rural communities, with implications for policy reform...

Place-Based Development Strategies: Evidence from 50 Years of Rural Policy

Authors: [To be added]

Abstract: A comprehensive review of five decades of rural development policy demonstrates the effectiveness of place-based approaches while identifying key implementation challenges...

Community Asset Mapping for Economic Development: A Meta-Analysis

Authors: [To be added]

Abstract: This meta-analysis examines community asset mapping methodologies across 200+ rural development initiatives, identifying best practices and common pitfalls...